CPL Live Monitor — Arcana EN/FR

Updated 2026-05-20 · CPL read per-row from CPL_EN.csv ()

Total spent

€11,411.78

Revenue today

€12,393.39

+8.6% ROI

Projected d90 (FR-curve)

€20,066.86

+75.8% ROI

Uplift waiting

+€7,673.47

Live state per source

Source	Leads	Age range	CPL	Spent	Revenue	Buyers (conv)	Sales	AOV	LTV/lead	Margin/lead	Margin total	ROI
Replay US (all)	4,590	03-24 → 05-19	€2.00	€9,180.00	€10,110.40	311 (6.8%)	668	€32.51	€2.20	€0.20	€930.40	+10.1%
◯ opt-in	4,413 (96%)		€2.00	€8,826.00	€4,834.99	144 (3.3%)	329	€33.58	€1.10	€-0.90	€-3,991.01	-45.2%
● direct buyer	177 (4%)		€2.00	€354.00	€5,461.49	177 (100.0%)	353	€30.86	€30.86	€28.86	€5,107.49	+1442.8%
Andrea (all)	479	04-01 → 05-19	€2.16	€1,032.87	€5.66	1 (0.2%)	1	€5.66	€0.01	€-2.14	€-1,027.21	-99.5%
◯ opt-in	478 (100%)		€2.16	€1,030.71	€0.00	0 (0.0%)	0	€0.00	€0.00	€-2.16	€-1,030.71	-100.0%
● direct buyer	1 (0%)		€2.16	€2.16	€5.66	1 (100.0%)	1	€5.66	€5.66	€3.50	€3.50	+162.4%
Andrew (all)	556	03-29 → 05-17	€2.16	€1,198.91	€2,277.33	46 (8.3%)	115	€49.51	€4.10	€1.94	€1,078.42	+90.0%
◯ opt-in	523 (94%)		€2.16	€1,127.75	€699.53	14 (2.7%)	39	€49.97	€1.34	€-0.82	€-428.22	-38.0%
● direct buyer	33 (6%)		€2.16	€71.16	€1,637.40	33 (100.0%)	79	€49.62	€49.62	€47.46	€1,566.24	+2201.1%

Per-window LTV per source — all / opt-in / opt-in buyers

Three rows per source. Row 1 (all): rev within W days / TOTAL leads. Row 2 (opt-in only): same denominator filtered to form opt-ins (excludes postback-created direct buyers). Row 3 (opt-in BUYERS only): rev within W days / opt-in buyers — what a converted buyer actually returns. Each source ends with a ⏱ row showing opt-in buyers' time-to-first-purchase distribution.

Source	CPL / ref	d1	d3	d7	d14	d30	d45	d60	T*
Replay US	€2.00	€0.95 235/4590 (5.1%)	€1.16 253/4590 (5.5%)	€1.46 270/4590 (5.9%)	€1.75 292/4590 (6.4%)	€2.06 304/4590 (6.6%)	€2.20 309/4590 (6.7%)	€2.20 311/4590 (6.8%)	30d
↳ opt-in only (per lead)	€2.00	€0.30 68/4413 (1.5%)	€0.43 86/4413 (1.9%)	€0.59 103/4413 (2.3%)	€0.82 125/4413 (2.8%)	€0.97 137/4413 (3.1%)	€1.09 142/4413 (3.2%)	€1.10 144/4413 (3.3%)	>60d
↳ opt-in BUYERS only (per buyer)	€61.29 (/buyer)	€9.21 68 buyers in window	€13.20 86 buyers in window	€17.94 103 buyers in window	€25.08 125 buyers in window	€29.86 137 buyers in window	€33.40 142 buyers in window	€33.58 144 buyers in window	>60d
⏱ Opt-in buyers' time-to-first-purchase: median 2.0d · p25 0d · p75 9d · p90 17d · mean 6.3d · n=144 buyers
Andrea	€2.16	€0.01 1/479 (0.2%)	€0.01 1/479 (0.2%)	€0.01 1/479 (0.2%)	€0.01 1/479 (0.2%)	€0.01 1/479 (0.2%)	€0.01 1/479 (0.2%)	€0.01 1/479 (0.2%)	>60d
↳ opt-in only (per lead)	€2.16	€0.00 0/478 (0.0%)	€0.00 0/478 (0.0%)	€0.00 0/478 (0.0%)	€0.00 0/478 (0.0%)	€0.00 0/478 (0.0%)	€0.00 0/478 (0.0%)	€0.00 0/478 (0.0%)	>60d
↳ opt-in BUYERS only (per buyer)	€1030.71 (/buyer)	€0.00 0 buyers in window	€0.00 0 buyers in window	€0.00 0 buyers in window	€0.00 0 buyers in window	€0.00 0 buyers in window	€0.00 0 buyers in window	€0.00 0 buyers in window	>60d
Andrew	€2.16	€2.12 41/556 (7.4%)	€2.58 42/556 (7.6%)	€3.86 45/556 (8.1%)	€4.10 46/556 (8.3%)	€4.10 46/556 (8.3%)	€4.10 46/556 (8.3%)	€4.10 46/556 (8.3%)	3d
↳ opt-in only (per lead)	€2.16	€0.53 10/523 (1.9%)	€0.67 10/523 (1.9%)	€1.27 13/523 (2.5%)	€1.34 14/523 (2.7%)	€1.34 14/523 (2.7%)	€1.34 14/523 (2.7%)	€1.34 14/523 (2.7%)	>60d
↳ opt-in BUYERS only (per buyer)	€80.55 (/buyer)	€19.64 10 buyers in window	€25.03 10 buyers in window	€47.57 13 buyers in window	€49.97 14 buyers in window	€49.97 14 buyers in window	€49.97 14 buyers in window	€49.97 14 buyers in window	>60d
⏱ Opt-in buyers' time-to-first-purchase: median 1.0d · p25 0d · p75 4d · p90 6d · mean 2.1d · n=14 buyers

Forecast — projected d90 via FR maturation curve

Maturation curve derived from Arcana FR cohort (n=13,566 contacts, 8 months history). For each EN weekly cohort: projected_d90 = current_ltv / FR_fraction_at_current_age. Method: fr_curve · FR d90 asymptote: €4.75/contact.

Source	Spent	Rev today	Rev d90 (proj)	LTV/lead d90	ROI d90	Uplift waiting
Replay US	€9,180.00	€10,110.40	€15,704.20	€3.42	+71.1%	+€5,593.80
Andrea	€1,032.87	€5.66	€10.90	€0.02	-98.9%	+€5.24
Andrew	€1,198.91	€2,277.33	€4,351.77	€7.83	+263.0%	+€2,074.44

Reallocation scenarios

Scenario	Spend	Rev mature (d56)	ROI
Current	€10,378.91	€37,885.23	+265.0%
Kill Andrea → +€1.2k Andrew	€11,558.91	€45,913.63	+297.2%
Shift €5k Replay→Andrew	€10,378.91	€55,712.08	+436.8%
5× Andrew (€6k spend)	€11,180.00	€57,597.13	+415.2%

Replay US weekly cohort decay

Week	Leads	Age	Buyers	LTV/lead	vs CPL
2026-W13	97	57 d	5	€6.08	3.04× CPL
2026-W14	290	51 d	38	€3.03	1.51× CPL
2026-W15	293	44 d	35	€3.21	1.60× CPL
2026-W16	563	37 d	33	€1.82	0.91× CPL
2026-W17	713	30 d	50	€2.31	1.16× CPL
2026-W18	823	23 d	59	€2.51	1.25× CPL
2026-W19	874	16 d	56	€2.39	1.20× CPL
2026-W20	796	9 d	34	€1.07	0.53× CPL
2026-W21	141	2 d	1	€0.18	0.09× CPL

Source: _tools/_cpl_monitor.py · State: _cpl_monitor_state.json · Forecast: _cpl_monitor_forecast.json