CPL Live Monitor — Arcana EN/FR
Updated 2026-05-19 · Auto-pulls CPL_EN.csv + Sales sheet + AC cohort. Forecast uses W13-derived 2.81× maturity multiplier (or per-source observed where ≥45d cohort exists).
Total spent
€10,084.05
cumulative CPL
Revenue today
€12,208.04
+21.1% ROI
Projected d56
€35,491.99
+252.0% ROI
Projected d90
€40,815.79
+304.8% ROI
Uplift waiting
+€23,283.95
maturation gain
Live state per source
| Source | Leads | CPL | LTV today | Margin/lead | ROI today | LTV d56 (proj) | Min CPL (breakeven d56) | Min CPL (2× d56) | Quality trend |
|---|
| Replay US |
4,590 |
€1.72 |
€2.16 |
€0.44 |
+25.6% |
€6.19 |
€6.19 |
€3.10 |
improving ⬆ |
| Andrea |
479 |
€2.12 |
€0.01 |
€-2.11 |
-99.4% |
€0.02 |
€0.02 |
€0.01 |
flat → |
| Andrew |
556 |
€2.09 |
€4.08 |
€2.00 |
+95.7% |
€14.66 |
€14.66 |
€7.33 |
improving ⬆ |
Reading: "Min CPL (breakeven d56)" is the DO-NOT-EXCEED ceiling — pay above this and the source becomes unprofitable even at mature ROI. "Min CPL (2× d56)" is the recommended max for healthy headroom. Quality trend is computed from per-week LTV-per-day-aged slope.
Forecast — what each source becomes
| Source | Spent | Rev today | Rev d56 | ROI d56 | Rev d90 | ROI d90 | Uplift waiting |
|---|
| Replay US |
€7,909.49 |
€9,933.52 |
€27,333.30 |
+245.6% |
€31,433.29 |
+297.4% |
+€17,399.78 |
| Andrea |
€1,015.26 |
€5.65 |
€7.94 |
-99.2% |
€9.13 |
-99.1% |
+€2.29 |
| Andrew |
€1,159.30 |
€2,268.87 |
€8,150.75 |
+603.1% |
€9,373.36 |
+708.5% |
+€5,881.88 |
Reallocation scenarios (live recomputed)
| Scenario | Spend | Rev mature (d56) | ROI |
|---|
| Current |
€9,068.79 |
€36,580.90 |
+303.4% |
| Kill Andrea → +€1.2k Andrew |
€10,248.79 |
€44,877.18 |
+337.9% |
| Shift €5k Replay→Andrew |
€9,068.79 |
€53,762.46 |
+492.8% |
| 5× Andrew (€6k spend) |
€9,909.49 |
€56,236.90 |
+467.5% |
Replay US weekly cohort decay
| Week | Leads | Age | Buyers | LTV/lead | vs CPL |
|---|
| 2026-W13 | 97 | 56 d | 5 | €6.07 | 3.52× CPL |
| 2026-W14 | 290 | 50 d | 38 | €3.03 | 1.76× CPL |
| 2026-W15 | 293 | 43 d | 35 | €3.20 | 1.86× CPL |
| 2026-W16 | 563 | 36 d | 33 | €1.74 | 1.01× CPL |
| 2026-W17 | 713 | 29 d | 50 | €2.20 | 1.27× CPL |
| 2026-W18 | 823 | 22 d | 59 | €2.49 | 1.44× CPL |
| 2026-W19 | 874 | 15 d | 56 | €2.39 | 1.39× CPL |
| 2026-W20 | 796 | 8 d | 33 | €1.05 | 0.61× CPL |
| 2026-W21 | 141 | 1 d | 1 | €0.08 | 0.04× CPL |
Daily ops checklist
- Refresh
CPL_EN.csv from AC US (Advanced Search → Export).
- Run
python _tools/_cpl_monitor.py — pulls fresh + writes new HTML.
- Check Min CPL ceiling column. If any source's current CPL exceeds breakeven d56 → STOP that bid.
- Check Quality trend column. Any source flagged "degrading" → audit last week's lead pull, consider pause.
- Check Uplift waiting — this is the cash that's already bought but not yet realised. Cohorts maturing.
Source: _tools/_cpl_monitor.py · State: _cpl_monitor_state.json · Forecast: _cpl_monitor_forecast.json